Football
18 Jan 2025
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Why Arsenal Look Like a Mourinho Team – But Must Adapt to Win Like One

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When former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher likened Arsenal to a “Jose Mourinho team,” it was intended as a compliment to their defensive resilience and set-piece proficiency. However, the comparison also hints at doubts about whether a defense-first approach can sustain title-winning success in modern football.

Now, with Arsenal relying heavily on set-pieces and struggling for creativity in midfield, the Mourinho parallels feel more apt—and problematic—than ever. While their recent 2-1 victory over Tottenham keeps them in the Premier League title race, Arsenal must evolve tactically if they want to turn potential into trophies.


Set-Pieces Highlight Arsenal’s Striker Problem

Arsenal’s over-reliance on set-pieces has masked deeper issues in their attack. Comparing the 2023-24 and 2024-25 Premier League seasons, their open-play creativity has diminished, while set-piece goals have become a lifeline:

  • 2023-24: Arsenal thrived on dynamic open-play goals.
  • 2024-25: Arsenal’s xG (expected goals) has dropped to seventh in the league (36.5), down from third last season (77.5).

Like Mourinho’s Chelsea in the mid-2000s, Arsenal’s set-piece efficiency is compensating for a lack of cutting-edge forwards. However, unlike Chelsea, Arsenal lack a ruthless striker to finish chances consistently.

Recent matches underline this issue:

  • Against Manchester United, Newcastle, and Tottenham, Arsenal scored just two goals from 63 shots, with an xG of 7.83.
  • Against Newcastle, they missed all six of their “big chances,” while Newcastle converted both of theirs.

Kai Havertz, underperforming his xG for the fourth time in five seasons, hasn’t provided the clinical edge Arsenal desperately need. Arteta’s side remains good at corners but lacks a prolific number nine to convert their dominance into decisive results.


Midfield Lacks Creativity

Arsenal’s struggles in attack stem not only from their forwards but also from a lack of creative guile in midfield. Their inability to progress the ball through the thirds has hampered their fluency:

  • Progressive Passes per 90 Minutes: Down from 55.4 (2023-24) to 45.4 (2024-25).
  • Through-Balls per 90 Minutes: Down from 2.74 to 1.81.

Martin Odegaard’s absence for eight Premier League games has been a significant factor. Since his return, he has created 42 chances in all competitions, nearly double the next-best player (Declan Rice, 23).

Odegaard’s importance is evident:

  • He created 14 chances in his last two matches alone—equal to the combined total of the rest of the team.
  • Against Tottenham, he had 73 touches, the most of any player on the pitch.

However, Arsenal’s midfield lacks creativity on the left side, where Mikel Merino and Declan Rice’s defensive tendencies stifle attacking fluidity. This imbalance has made Arsenal predictable, forcing them to rely excessively on Bukayo Saka’s creativity on the right wing.


Over-Reliance on Saka and a Predictable Attack

With Saka sidelined by a hamstring injury since December, Arsenal’s attack has become increasingly lopsided:

  • Arsenal now attack through the right more than any other team in the Premier League, while their left and central attacking contributions are among the lowest.

This predictability has made them easier to defend against. Opponents like Manchester United have effectively doubled up on the right side while leaving Arsenal unable to exploit central or left-sided spaces.


Defensive Mistakes and Luck Regression

Defensive errors have also cost Arsenal this season:

  • They made 18 mistakes leading to opposition shots in 2023-24 but have already matched that number this season.

Additionally, Arsenal’s attack has been less fortunate compared to last season:

  • In 2023-24, they overperformed their post-shot xG by 15.5 goals, converting tough chances.
  • This season, that figure has dropped to just 1.7, suggesting regression to the mean.

What Must Change for Arsenal to Win Like Mourinho?

  1. Sign a Ruthless Striker:
    Arsenal’s reliance on set-pieces highlights their need for a forward who can turn half-chances into goals. January presents an opportunity to address this gap.
  2. Add a Creative Midfielder:
    The midfield requires a dynamic playmaker who can complement Odegaard and inject variety into Arsenal’s attacks.
  3. Rebalance Attacking Play:
    Arsenal must diversify their offensive approach, reducing their dependence on Saka and the right wing. Developing left-sided and central attacking patterns is crucial to avoid predictability.
  4. Tighten Defensive Consistency:
    A Mourinho-inspired emphasis on defensive resilience must be accompanied by fewer errors at the back.

Conclusion

While comparisons to Mourinho’s Chelsea highlight Arsenal’s defensive solidity and set-piece strength, they also expose the limitations of their current approach. Without addressing their striker and midfield deficiencies, Arsenal risk emulating Mourinho’s pragmatism without replicating his success.

To transition from title contenders to champions, Arteta must combine the best elements of Mourinho’s tactics with the attacking dynamism needed to thrive in modern football.

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