Breaking down Man City’s record losing run – stats, Rodri & Guardiola’s future

 Pep Guardiola’s body language provided compelling evidence that he is now facing the closest thing to a crisis since his transitional first season at Manchester City.

Guardiola had already been perching anxiously on one knee, his face wreathed in anguish, well before Joao Pedro’s 77th-minute equaliser started the Brighton comeback that inflicted a fourth successive defeat, City’s first such sequence since 2006.

It also means Guardiola is on the worst run of his entire managerial career, having never before lost four games in a row in normal time.

The Catalan, who arrived at Manchester City in the summer of 2016, had been on hot bricks from the first whistle at Amex Stadium, his mood made worse by Matt O’Riley racing through a creaking defence to score Brighton’s deserved winner seven minutes from the end of a thunderous encounter.

And after the final whistle, Guardiola was involved in lengthy, animated dialogue with Brighton defender Jan Paul van Hecke, who looked mystified as he was on the receiving end of a lecture from the City manager.

Casting doubt on Guardiola and Manchester City is a hazardous business given their unprecedented history of Premier League success, but there is no escaping that these losses, and the manner of them, flag up trouble.

So, as City trail Premier League leaders Liverpool by five points, where is it all going wrong… and could it really be the beginning of the end for Guardiola’s dynasty at the club?

What do the stats say?

City’s mounting problems are coming at both ends of the pitch – as demonstrated when comparing their stats from last season to this.

In front of goal, they have gone from an average of 2.53 goals per game last season to two per game this – despite having more shots on goal on average, up from 18.5 to 19.6.

Are they lacking a cutting edge?

They are certainly now relying even more on Haaland, with their big chance conversion down from 38% to 29.8%.

At the other end, meanwhile, they are now conceding 1.17 goals per game, up from 0.92 goals per game, while they are facing more shots per game too.

It all adds to the noise surrounding Manchester City, scrutiny will increase should poor results continue.

Have teams found a weakness down City’s right?

There is suddenly a vulnerability about Manchester City that is offering rivals the sort of encouragement they have rarely scented since Guardiola arrived.

The increasing ease with which Brighton cut through City will have alarmed Guardiola, the statistics backing up the sense that they are much easier to get at this season.

While City’s midfield went absent without leave in the second half, the veteran Kyle Walker looked every one of his 34 years as he was given a torrid time by Kaoru Mitoma, then substitute Joao Pedro.

Brighton’s strategy of attacking City’s right flank looked like a deliberate ploy, with 44.9% of their attacks targeting that wing as opposed to 26.9% on the left.

Walker has missed a chunk of this season, but Rico Lewis, who has deputised, often drifts into midfield, leaving space for opposition sides to exploit.

In the course of this season, 38.7% of attacks have come down City’s right flank compared to 36% on the left.

Has a weakness been exposed?

Could it really all be down to losing Rodri?

The stats highlighting their defensive issues all add up to City’s malaise – but, in the most basic terms, Rodri is the player Guardiola is unable to replace.

Rodri provides a shield City cannot rebuild in his absence.

Since the start of last season Rodri, who suffered an anterior cruciate knee ligament injury against Arsenal in September, played 53 games in which they won 39, drew 13 and lost one, the FA Cup Final against Manchester United.

Without Rodri, City have played 24 games, winning 14, drawing two and losing eight. City’s win percentage with the Ballon d’Or winner is 73.6% compared to 58.3% without him.

It is a stark contrast only underscored by their current struggles.

Former City defender Micah Richards, speaking on Match Of The Day, said: “The most defining thing for me is not pressing any more. They’re going as individuals.

“When you lose the best midfielder in Europe [Rodri] you’re always going to have a strain on the team.

“But they are just too easy to play through at this moment in time.”

And former England midfielder Jamie Redknapp, speaking on Sky Sports, added: “There was no way City lose those four games if Rodri plays.”

What else is going on at the club?

Manchester City’s rivals will reach for the world’s smallest violin if Guardiola mentions injuries, given their vast financial and playing resources, but he is well within his rights to mention losing Rodri, his most important player, for the season.

Kevin de Bruyne, Ruben Dias, Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji have all missed games too.

And Guardiola’s own future is yet to be decided as his contract expires next June. Director of football Txiki Begiristain, a close friend going back to their Barcelona days, is going at the end of the season.

When Guardiola has extended his City contract on the previous two occasions, the club has announced that in November 2020 and November 2022. He is yet to give any hint about his decision, with reports of approaches from Brazil and also England before the FA appointed Thomas Tuchel.

If City were winning, there would be a serenity as events moved behind the scenes. Instead, this will become more of an issue unless they pull out of this slump.

And could it be, at long last, that City’s squad needs new names and fresh hunger after winning the Champions League, six Premier League titles, two FA Cups, four League Cups, the Uefa Super Cup and the Fifa Club World Cup under Guardiola?

The manager looked hungry enough on the touchline, an energetic presence throughout. He will not accept anything less from his players.

If any manager or team can provide the answer to the questions facing them, Guardiola and Manchester City can.

They will need to stop the decline swiftly, however. Liverpool and Arsenal will be scenting weaknesses.

But don’t forget, we’ve been here before…

While four successive defeats as Manchester City boss might be a new experience for Guardiola, emerging from the chasing pack to win a league title is not.

City’s defeat by Brighton leaves them five points behind Liverpool, who beat Aston Villa 2-0 and will host City on 1 December.

But, two years ago, City were able to chase down Arsenal, overcoming an eight-point deficit at the start of April to win the Premier League trophy.

Write off Guardiola and City at your peril.