The Impact of Manager Changes in the Fight for Survival Relegation
In the world of football, managerial changes are often seen as a necessary response when a team is facing the threat of relegation. This is particularly true when a club is stuck in the bottom of the league, struggling to find form and in desperate need of a turnaround. Recently, two Premier League clubs made the bold decision to part ways with their managers in an effort to avoid relegation. Southampton, who are currently at the bottom of the table, sacked Russell Martin, the manager who had led them to promotion. Similarly, Wolves, who are also dangerously close to the relegation zone, dismissed Gary O’Neil after a season and a half at the helm.
But does sacking a manager really help a team avoid relegation? Is there hope for clubs like Wolves and Southampton, who find themselves in such precarious positions? The answer is not simple, and while there are instances where changing the manager has led to survival, the statistics tell a more complicated story.
Historical Context: Managerial Changes and Relegation Survival
Looking at the history of teams that have sacked their manager while in the relegation zone, we can gain some insight into whether such changes have a positive impact on survival. There have been 91 instances in which a club parted ways with their manager while sitting in the relegation zone, and of those, 36 teams managed to avoid relegation. This gives a success rate of approximately 40%.
While this success rate is not high, it does suggest that, in certain circumstances, a change of manager can provide a much-needed boost to a struggling team. However, not all situations are created equal, and factors such as timing, the quality of the replacement, and the club’s overall squad play a crucial role in determining whether a managerial change leads to survival or further decline.
The ‘Five-Point Survival’ Pattern
Among the teams that sacked their manager while in the relegation zone and avoided relegation, five of those teams were exactly five points adrift, much like Wolves are at present. This has been a particularly significant marker in terms of the probability of survival, as five-point deficits can be challenging but not insurmountable to recover from. Several notable managers have been able to turn around teams in this position, with Sam Allardyce being the most famous example.
Allardyce kept two teams in the Premier League after they were five points from safety: Blackburn Rovers in the 2008-09 season and Sunderland in 2015-16. Similarly, Tony Parkes, while serving as caretaker, saved Blackburn from relegation in 1996-97 after the team was also in a dire position. Harry Redknapp managed to steer Tottenham Hotspur clear of relegation in the 2008-09 season, despite the team being in the relegation zone when he took over.
Tony Pulis also performed a similar feat when he helped Crystal Palace avoid the drop in 2013-14. By the time Pulis took charge, Palace were only three points off safety, but his tactical acumen and leadership helped guide them to survival. While these instances of success demonstrate that a change in manager can indeed help teams avoid relegation, it is worth noting that these cases occurred earlier in the season, often in October. In fact, only one of the five instances where teams were five points adrift happened this late in the season — when Blackburn sacked Paul Ince in December 2008 and appointed Allardyce shortly after.
For Wolves, who find themselves five points from safety in December, the historical precedents set by Allardyce, Redknapp, and Pulis give some hope. While the odds are not in their favour, a well-timed managerial change could still be the spark needed to propel the team to safety.
Southampton’s Struggles: A Tougher Road to Survival
While Wolves’ situation provides a glimmer of hope, the outlook for Southampton is much less optimistic. The club is currently nine points adrift, which is a significant gap at this stage of the season. In fact, no team has ever stayed up after being nine points or more from safety at any stage of the season. Only two teams in Premier League history have managed to survive after being as much as nine points adrift: Blackburn Rovers in 1996-97 and West Ham United in 2006-07.
Blackburn, under the stewardship of caretaker Tony Parkes, were able to recover and avoid relegation after being in a similarly perilous position. West Ham’s escape in 2006-07 is another rare example, as the team were 10 points adrift with only nine games left to play. Despite this, they went on to win seven of those games and survived. However, such dramatic recoveries are exceedingly rare, and Southampton’s current situation is much more dire than those two teams faced.
In terms of managerial changes, Southampton have attempted this strategy before, but without much success. The club has changed managers while in the relegation zone on three occasions in the past: when Ian Branfoot left in 1993-94, Stuart Gray in 2001-02, and Mark Hughes in 2018-19. In none of these instances did the club face the kind of massive points deficit that they currently find themselves facing. Moreover, in recent seasons, the club has failed to escape relegation after changing managers, including in the 2022-23 season, when both Ralph Hasenhuttl and Nathan Jones were dismissed without success.
Southampton’s position as the bottom team in the league at Christmas is particularly concerning. Historically, only four teams have survived relegation after being bottom at Christmas in Premier League history: West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15), and Wolves (2022-23). The odds are stacked against Southampton, and the club faces an uphill battle to avoid the drop, even with a new manager.
Recent Managerial Changes and Survival Rates
Looking at recent trends in the Premier League, the effectiveness of changing managers while in the relegation zone has been mixed. Over the past five seasons, 16 teams parted ways with their manager while in the relegation zone, but only five of them managed to survive. Last season, for example, Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United all spent a significant amount of time in the bottom three, but none of them changed their manager, and all three were relegated. This highlights that while managerial changes can work, they are far from a guaranteed solution.
Conclusion: Does Sacking a Manager Help Avoid Relegation?
In conclusion, sacking a manager while in the relegation zone can sometimes help a team avoid relegation, but the success rate is not high. The success of a managerial change depends on various factors, including the timing of the change, the quality of the replacement, and the overall strength of the squad. Historical data suggests that changes made earlier in the season, particularly when a team is five points adrift, have a higher chance of success. For teams like Wolves, who are currently in a similar position, there is hope based on past examples.
However, for clubs like Southampton, who are significantly behind and facing a massive points gap, the prospects of survival are much slimmer. No team has ever escaped relegation after being nine points adrift, and Southampton faces a tough road ahead. While changing the manager can offer a short-term boost, it may not always be enough to overcome the challenges of survival in the Premier League.
Ultimately, while a managerial change can sometimes spark a turnaround, it is no guarantee of survival. Teams in the relegation zone need more than just a new manager; they need a collective effort from players, staff, and supporters to claw their way out of danger.
Relegation-zone managerial changes in the previous five seasons
| Team | Manager Replaced | Season | Did the team stay up? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | Javier Gracia | 2019-20 | No |
| Watford | Quique Sanchez Flores | 2019-20 | No |
| Everton | Marco Silva | 2019-20 | Yes |
| West Brom | Slaven Bilic | 2020-21 | No |
| Sheff Utd | Chris Wilder | 2020-21 | No |
| Newcastle | Steve Bruce | 2021-22 | Yes |
| Norwich | Daniel Farke | 2021-22 | No |
| Watford | Claudio Ranieri | 2021-22 | No |
| Burnley | Sean Dyche | 2021-22 | No |
| Bournemouth | Scott Parker | 2022-23 | Yes |
| Wolves | Bruno Lage | 2022-23 | Yes |
| Southampton | Ralph Hasenhuttl | 2022-23 | No |
| Everton | Frank Lampard | 2022-23 | Yes |
| Southampton | Nathan Jones | 2022-23 | No |
| Leicester | Brendan Rodgers | 2022-23 | No |
| Sheff Utd | Paul Heckingbottom | 2023-24 | No |
