‘It’s the reality’ – will it take fewer points to win Premier League?

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has predicted fewer points will be required to win the Premier League this season. But do the stats back that up?

With Bournemouth ending the champions’ 32-game unbeaten league run and last season’s runners-up Arsenal losing at Newcastle, four of the competition’s current top six failed to win over the weekend.

Guardiola has won six league titles in eight years since taking charge at City and his teams have set an unprecedented standard for their rivals to match.

But the Spaniard believes the physical demands on players caused by an increased number of games will mean those levels cannot be maintained.

“It’s the reality we are living now,” said Guardiola, whose side will also contest an expanded 32-team Club World Cup following the conclusion of the European season next summer.

“In the previous seasons we played a lot of games, but if we go to the World Cup and arrive in the last stages of that competition, we’re going to play almost 70 games.

“It’s like NBA, but they have four months holiday and we have three weeks.

“You have injuries for a long time which didn’t happen before. It’s normal, it’s going to happen. We have to handle it.”

Following Arsenal’s loss at Newcastle on Saturday, former England midfielder Joe Cole agreed fewer points will be required – but for a different reason.

“I think this league title will be won by less points than it has been for a long time because there are too many good teams,” said Cole, speaking on TNT Sports.

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

• The average number of points per game required to win the Premier League title over its history is 2.29.
• Since Guardiola’s arrival in 2016-17, that number has risen to 2.46 points.
• The average number of points the eventual Premier League champion has had after 10 games is 22.5.
• Since Guardiola’s arrival in 2016-17, that has increased to 23.6 points.
• The gap between first and 10th after the opening 10 games of a Premier League campaign has been smaller than the 10 points separating those positions in 2024-25 in seven of 32 previous seasons.

Current leaders Liverpool have taken 25 points – an average of 2.50 points per game – from 10 matches this season, and therefore are actually overperforming against those title-winning figures. So far, no issue there.

In terms of the most competitive seasons, just four points separated the Premier League’s top 10 clubs after each had played 10 games in 2020-21.

But that campaign and 2015-16 are the only two seasons to see a smaller gap between first and 10th after 10 games in the past 22 years.

Despite defeat on Saturday, City are only one point short of the 24 they had at this stage last season, before going on to win a fourth successive title with 91 points.

City became the first team in English top-flight history to reach 100 points in 2017-18 – dropping just 14 points – and they have broken the 90-point barrier on three other occasions under Guardiola.

That has forced their rivals to reach new heights, with Liverpool exceeding 90 points three times in the past six years – but winning the title only once.

Six of the last eight champions have won more than 90 points, but prior to 2017 only four teams had reached that tally in the 21 years since the league was reduced to 20 clubs.

Asked whether he expects those standards will drop this season, Guardiola said: “Of course, absolutely.

“If we’d had five more days to prepare and recover [for Bournemouth], maybe we would have been better. Or maybe not, who knows.

“I talked about the calendar for the season when we were winning, not just now because we lost a game. The reality is they won, we congratulate them.”

Global players’ union Fifpro and a group representing 39 European leagues filed a legal complaint against Fifa over “abuse of dominance” relating to the number of games players are expected to participate in during a season.

Manchester City midfielder Rodri, who has since suffered a season-ending knee injury, even claimed players are close to going on strike in protest.

City were without key players such as John Stones, Ruben Dias and Kevin De Bruyne at the weekend, while defenders Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake played despite not being fully fit.

“We won a lot and people expect we’re going to win all the time,” said Guardiola, whose side had not lost in the Premier League since 6 December 2023.

“It’s the first game we’ve lost in the Premier League in 2024. We’re in November. It’s unbelievable.”