Assessing Ruben Amorim’s Shocking Admission
Ruben Amorim’s candid statement about Manchester United’s relegation risk sent shockwaves through football. Following their 2-0 loss to Newcastle at Old Trafford, United dropped to 14th place, sitting just seven points above the relegation zone.
“I think that it is a possibility,” Amorim told BBC Sport. “We have to be clear with our fans.”
United, a club that last faced relegation 50 years ago in the 1973-74 season, has enjoyed an era of top-flight stability. As one of only six Premier League clubs never relegated since 1992, the idea of Championship football at Old Trafford seems almost unthinkable. But is it really possible?
How Bad Is United’s Current Form?
United’s recent results paint a grim picture:
- Three consecutive Premier League losses, part of a streak of five defeats in their last six league matches.
- Their lowest position at the turn of the year since 1989, when they were 15th.
- December 2024 was disastrous:
- Six defeats in all competitions, the first time this has happened since 1962.
- 18 goals conceded, their worst monthly defensive record since March 1964.
Since Amorim’s appointment in November, United have earned seven points out of 24, with a record of two wins, one draw, and five losses. This form is worse than under predecessor Erik ten Hag.
Relegation Math: How Many Points Are Needed to Stay Safe?
Historically, teams have needed an average of 35.6 points to avoid relegation in the Premier League since its shift to a 38-game format in 1995-96. Teams finishing 17th typically secure 38 points to remain safe.
- United are on 22 points after 19 matches, averaging 1.15 points per game.
- If they maintain this pace, they’ll finish with 44 points, comfortably above the drop zone.
- Under Amorim, however, the team’s form has dipped to 0.88 points per game. This projects a total of 39 points, which should still be enough for survival but leaves little room for complacency.
Notably, West Ham’s 42 points in 2002-03 remains the highest tally by a relegated team in the Premier League era.
Opta’s Relegation Projections: A Relief for United Fans
Despite recent struggles, Opta’s analytical models suggest Manchester United are not in serious relegation danger:
- 0.1% chance of finishing 18th.
- 0% chance of finishing in the bottom two.
In fact, United are more likely to finish fifth (1.3%) than to occupy a relegation spot. Their most probable final position is:
- 12th place (15.1%)
- Followed by 13th (13.9%) and 11th (12.6%).
Opta’s simulations project United to finish the season with 50 points, far from relegation trouble but equally distant from the Champions League places.
What’s Next for Manchester United?
While relegation seems highly unlikely, Manchester United’s current trajectory is far from acceptable for a club of their stature. To turn their season around, Ruben Amorim must:
- Stabilize Defensive Weaknesses: December’s record of 18 goals conceded highlights a critical area to address.
- Revitalize Attacking Output: Struggling forwards like Marcus Rashford must regain form to lift the team.
- Capitalize on January Transfers: Adding quality reinforcements could provide the boost needed to climb the table.
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