There’s a certain stillness about Max Verstappen these days. Not the kind that suggests detachment or indifference, but rather the quiet calm of a man who knows his circumstances are shifting — and that frustration won’t fix it.
Red Bull’s once-unassailable dominance in Formula 1 has shown signs of strain in the opening chapters of the 2025 season. A far cry from the steamroller we saw in the early months of 2023, the RB20 looks increasingly like a machine in search of answers. The pace is off, balance is an issue, and worse yet, rivals like McLaren and Mercedes are breathing down their necks. For Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s motorsport advisor and long-time Verstappen confidante, the concern is real. Very real.
Verstappen’s Composure Masks Red Bull’s Deepening Crisis
After finishing sixth in Bahrain — a circuit that historically suited the Red Bulls — Verstappen offered no tantrums, no barbed digs, just a calm, candid reflection: “Shouting or getting angry won’t do any good. I’m not angry. On the contrary, I’m at peace.”
Peace, perhaps. But under the surface, there’s tension. And Marko didn’t hide it.
“The concern is great,” the Austrian told Sky Germany. “Improvements have to come in the near future so that [Max] has a car with which he can win again. We have to create a basis with a car so that he can fight for the world championship.”
Those are not the words of a man confident in the immediate direction of his team. Red Bull are facing a crossroads — and Verstappen’s future is very much on the line.
Verstappen’s Contract and the Mysterious Performance Clause
Officially, Verstappen is tied to Red Bull until the end of 2028, a deal inked during their peak. But deep within that contract lies a little-known performance clause. It’s the kind of legal nuance that can open the door for exits if the machinery stops matching the man’s ambition.
While the exact wording remains under wraps, it’s widely understood that Red Bull must provide Verstappen with a car capable of winning championships. That clause, once a formality during their golden run, suddenly feels like a ticking clock.
“Other teams have improved more than us, that’s clear,” Verstappen admitted after the Bahrain Grand Prix. “There are those who are doing things better at the moment. We definitely need to take steps, but that’s not new.”
McLaren and Mercedes Gaining Momentum
McLaren have now claimed three of the first four victories in 2025, including Oscar Piastri’s commanding win in Bahrain. Lando Norris, Verstappen’s close friend and current title leader, is eight points clear at the top of the drivers’ standings. Meanwhile, Mercedes look increasingly dialled in — and hungry.
The big red flag? Red Bull’s average qualifying pace in 2025 ranks second-best, yet still trails McLaren by 0.214 seconds per lap. That might not sound like much, but in Formula 1, it’s a canyon.
Verstappen hasn’t started higher than third in three of the four races. He was fourth in Australia, seventh in China, and third in Bahrain. The only exception? His pole lap in Suzuka — described by many as one of the greatest laps of all time — which helped him secure a crucial win. But even that felt more like a one-off than a turning point.
Balance, Grip and a Car That Won’t Cooperate
The issues with the RB20 aren’t just about raw speed. The complaints from Verstappen — echoed in whispers from Sergio Pérez’s side of the garage — focus on a car that feels unpredictable in corners and short on grip.
“The problem is not just one thing,” Verstappen explained. “There are a number of different problems and they vary slightly at each track. We need to get more grip and give the car a better balance.”
It doesn’t help that the car’s behavior doesn’t match the data from Red Bull’s simulation tools. Team principal Christian Horner admitted post-Bahrain that correlation problems between wind tunnel results and real-world performance are still haunting the team — the very same gremlins that troubled them in the second half of 2024.
In fact, Verstappen won only two of the last 13 races last season, salvaging a title largely thanks to an early-season blitz. That luxury is absent now.
Bahrain: A Weekend to Forget
The Bahrain GP was as frustrating as they come for the Dutchman. Plagued by poor pit stops — one delayed by a traffic light system, the other by a problematic front wheel — Verstappen dropped to the back of the field at one point.
He eventually recovered to sixth after muscling past Pierre Gasly’s Alpine on the final lap, but by then, the damage was done. More concerning than the result was the sense that Red Bull’s problems weren’t track-specific — they’re structural.
“Here you just get punished a bit harder when you have big balance issues,” Verstappen said. “The wind is high, the track has low grip, the Tarmac is aggressive — everything is highlighted more.”
Brake feel, stopping power, overall grip — none of it came together, despite multiple changes to the setup across the weekend.
Red Bull Updates: Hope Pinned on Imola
Red Bull’s first major upgrade package is expected to debut in Imola, the sixth race of the season. But Verstappen doesn’t sound like a man pinning his hopes on that alone.
“I don’t need them to tell me how many parts are coming or how much of a difference it’s going to make. I just want those updates to come. We’ll see how well it works then.”
No hype. No illusions. Just cautious realism.
Mercedes Lurking in the Background
Beyond the immediate drama of performance, there’s the looming presence of Toto Wolff and Mercedes. The Silver Arrows have made no secret of their admiration for Verstappen. Talks reportedly took place last season, though nothing has materialized in 2025 — yet.
What makes this dance even more intriguing is the timing. In 2026, Formula 1 will introduce the most dramatic regulation overhaul in a generation, changing both chassis and power unit rules. Predicting which team will be on top is impossible, but most paddock insiders quietly tip Mercedes to be the most prepared — particularly on the engine side.
Should Red Bull fail to get their house in order this season or next, Verstappen’s exit clause could be activated. And if that happens, don’t expect Mercedes to wait politely at the door.
Marko’s Message Is a Warning Shot
For now, Verstappen is staying patient. But Marko’s rare public show of concern feels like more than a passing comment. It’s a signal to the Red Bull organization that time is running short. The most valuable driver on the grid won’t stick around forever without the right tools.
Verstappen might not shout, and he might not slam doors — but silence, too, can be deafening.
