
The race for the top four in the Premier League has always been synonymous with Champions League qualification. However, this season there’s a high chance the league could gain a fifth spot for Europe’s top-tier competition in the 2025-26 season, thanks to UEFA’s revamped qualification system.
Here’s a detailed look at how it works and what it could mean for Premier League clubs.
How Can Leagues Earn an Extra Champions League Spot?
UEFA will award two additional Champions League spots to the domestic leagues with the best performances in Europe this season. These extra spots are determined by UEFA’s coefficient ranking system, which measures leagues based on their clubs’ results in European competitions.
How Coefficients Are Calculated:
- Points:
- Win = 2 points
- Draw = 1 point
- Bonus points are awarded for progressing through stages in the Champions League.
- The total points earned by all clubs in a league are divided by the number of teams representing that league in Europe, giving an average score.
What Happens If England Qualifies?
If the Premier League finishes in the top two of the coefficient table, it will gain an additional Champions League spot. For the Premier League, the fifth-placed team would qualify alongside the traditional top four.
Current Coefficient Table (as of 26 January)
- England: Points – 100 | Average – 14.34
- Italy: Points – 88 | Average – 11.05
- Spain: Points – 82 | Average – 11.77
- France: Points – 66 | Average – 10.94
- Germany: Points – 79 | Average – 9.88
Why England Is Leading:
- Strong performances by Premier League clubs like Manchester City, Manchester United, Aston Villa, and Arsenal across European competitions.
- Higher bonus points for clubs advancing further in the Champions League.
Chance of an Extra Spot:
- Opta calculates a 98% probability of the Premier League earning an extra Champions League place for the 2025-26 season.
Which Premier League Team Could Benefit?
If the Premier League secures a fifth Champions League spot, the fifth-placed team this season will qualify. As of now, that team is Newcastle United.
Top 5 Race Predictions (via Opta):
- Newcastle United: 45% chance of finishing in the top five.
- Nottingham Forest: 63% (if the league earns five spots).
- Bournemouth: 26%.
This creates a fierce battle among the likes of Newcastle, Forest, Bournemouth, and others vying for European football.
What About Europa League Winners?
The winners of the Europa League are guaranteed a Champions League spot. Under UEFA’s updated rules:
- A league can now have more than five clubs in the Champions League.
- If a Premier League club, like Manchester United or Tottenham, wins the Europa League but finishes outside the top five, they will also qualify for the Champions League.
Could There Be Seven Premier League Teams in the Champions League?
Yes, it’s possible. Here’s how:
- The top five Premier League teams qualify (if England earns the extra spot).
- The Europa League winners (if a Premier League team wins it) also qualify.
- The Champions League winners (if an English team wins it and finishes outside the top five) secure a spot.
This scenario could result in seven English teams competing in the Champions League.
What About Champions League Winners?
The Champions League winner automatically qualifies for the next season’s competition. If, for instance, Manchester City wins the Champions League this season but finishes outside the top five in the Premier League, they will still qualify.
Historically, such scenarios have happened. Chelsea won the Champions League in 2012 but finished sixth in the league, earning a spot at the expense of fourth-placed Tottenham due to a limit on English teams in the competition at the time. This rule has since been scrapped.
Impact on Other European Competitions
Even if the Premier League gains an extra Champions League spot, the allocation for the Europa League and Conference League would remain:
- Two Europa League spots.
- One Conference League spot.
This ensures teams finishing sixth and seventh could still compete in Europe.
What This Means for the Premier League
An additional Champions League spot elevates the importance of finishing fifth. For clubs like Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and even Tottenham or Manchester United, it represents an opportunity to compete at the highest level of European football.
With England leading the coefficient table, the likelihood of securing an extra spot is extremely high, making the Premier League more competitive and its top-five race more significant than ever.