The Champions League’s new format, designed for increased excitement and heightened stakes, has delivered unexpected drama as two of Europe’s most prominent teams—Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain—face the genuine risk of early elimination.
Currently sitting in precarious positions—City in 24th and PSG in 26th—both clubs face must-win scenarios to secure progression beyond the league phase.
How Did Man City and PSG End Up Here?
Manchester City’s Stumble
Manchester City’s uncharacteristic struggles began with a League Cup elimination by Tottenham and have since extended across all competitions. City has managed just five wins in their last 17 matches, a stark contrast to their usual dominance.
Their Champions League campaign has been a rollercoaster, starting with a strong seven points from three games but derailed by defeats to Sporting and Juventus and a dramatic 3-3 draw with Feyenoord.
Paris Saint-Germain’s Missteps
Despite dominating Ligue 1, PSG’s European form has been underwhelming. They’ve earned just seven points in six matches, suffering defeats to Bayern Munich, Arsenal, and Atletico Madrid. Their current standing puts them in an elimination spot.
What’s at Stake for City and PSG?
Under the new format, finishing in the top eight ensures automatic qualification to the last 16, while 9th to 24th requires teams to navigate a two-legged playoff. Those finishing 25th to 36th are eliminated outright, with no Europa League fallback.
Man City’s Path
City is five points off the top eight and needs victories in their final matches to secure at least a playoff spot. A loss to PSG on Wednesday would mean relying on other results and a must-win match against Club Brugge.
PSG’s Challenge
PSG’s situation is even more precarious, sitting six points adrift of the top eight. A win against City would provide much-needed breathing room, but they also face a tough away fixture against Stuttgart on the final day.
Likelihood of Progression
- City: Opta estimates an 84% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 57% chance of advancing to the last 16.
- PSG: Their playoff chances stand at 64%, with just a 41% likelihood of making it to the round of 16.
Financial Implications of Early Exit
Failing to advance would deal a significant financial blow to both clubs:
- Participation Fee: Each team earns €18.62m for entering the league phase.
- Performance Bonuses: Wins and draws earn €2.1m and €700,000, respectively.
- Table Placement: Each position in the league phase is worth €275,000, scaling up to €9.9m for first place.
Knockout stage bonuses range from €9.6m for the round of 16 to €20m for the winner. Eliminated teams would miss out on lucrative broadcast revenue, matchday income, and further prize money.
What’s Next?
City and PSG must deliver decisive performances in their remaining matches to salvage their campaigns. The high stakes and financial pressures make their Wednesday clash a pivotal moment in the Champions League season.
