The 2024/25 Premier League season has taken an unexpected and dramatic turn for Manchester United, a club synonymous with success, glory, and a rich history. Yet, halfway through the season, the once-mighty Red Devils find themselves facing a relegation dogfight that few would have predicted. With Ruben Amorim at the helm, Manchester United are struggling to avoid their first relegation since 1974. The club’s current situation is dire, and fans are wondering whether this fall from grace could culminate in the unthinkable relegation to the Championship.
Ruben Amorim’s Honest Assessment: A Difficult Situation
The arrival of Ruben Amorim in the summer of 2024 was seen by many as a sign of hope for Manchester United. The Portuguese coach was widely regarded as one of the brightest managerial talents in Europe, with a proven track record of success at Sporting CP. Yet, in just two months, Amorim’s tenure has gone from one of cautious optimism to a full-blown crisis.
After a disheartening 2-0 loss to Newcastle United on the final day of 2024, Amorim did not shy away from the reality of Manchester United’s precarious position. In his post-match comments, he admitted, “It is a really difficult moment, one of the more difficult moments in the history of Manchester United, and we have to address it with honesty.” This frank admission revealed the severity of the situation the club is facing under Amorim’s stewardship.
The 2-0 defeat to Newcastle was emblematic of United’s season so far. In the first 30 minutes, the Magpies completely outplayed their counterparts, with United’s midfield looking especially fragile. At 64 years old, Christian Eriksen was visibly struggling to keep up with the younger, more dynamic midfield of Newcastle, leaving the Red Devils exposed. While United showed some signs of improvement after Kobbie Mainoo was introduced, the damage had already been done. Amorim’s choices during the match, including the selection of certain underperforming players, have been scrutinized, and many believe they cost the team valuable points.
United’s Current Position: A Seven-Point Buffer Above the Drop Zone
As we move into January 2025, Manchester United find themselves in a precarious position. They are currently in 14th place in the Premier League, with only a seven-point buffer separating them from the relegation zone. The drop zone, which is typically occupied by the three lowest-performing teams at the end of the season, has been a place United have not had to worry about for decades. But now, in a season marked by a series of frustrating performances, the reality of relegation has begun to take hold.
A key moment in United’s downward spiral came when Ipswich Town secured their first home win of the season against Chelsea, a result that pushed the pressure on Manchester United even further. Amorim and his players now face the grim reality of a relegation battle, and their recent form has left fans and pundits questioning whether they can turn things around.
What Are Man Utd’s Chances of Relegation?
While the prospect of relegation seems almost unfathomable for a club of Manchester United’s stature, the numbers suggest that the club’s chances of actually going down remain slim though not impossible.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, which simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times based on current form, Manchester United were relegated on only 15 occasions (0.15%) in those simulations. While these odds are certainly reassuring for Manchester United fans, they still highlight the severity of the club’s current plight.
Points Accumulation and Current Trajectory
Manchester United currently have 22 points at the halfway mark of the season. If they maintain this rate of points accumulation, they are projected to finish with 44 points at the end of the campaign. Historically, 36 points is generally considered the threshold for survival in the Premier League, and teams that achieve this mark are usually safe from relegation. However, the landscape of the Premier League has evolved, and recent seasons have shown that even teams with more than 39 points can still face the drop.
The last instance of a team being relegated despite accruing 39 or more points was Blackpool in the 2010/11 season. So while it is still highly unlikely that Manchester United will be relegated with 44 points, their trajectory under Amorim, with a 0.88 points-per-game average, suggests they may finish with just 39 points, potentially putting them in a more vulnerable position.
A Record-Breaking Poor Season
If Manchester United does finish the season with 39 points, it would be their worst Premier League performance in history. Prior to this season, their poorest league finish was 59 points in the 2021/22 season. The 2024/25 campaign is shaping up to be a catastrophic one by their usual standards, and if they do not address their issues quickly, they could be in for a record-breaking low finish.
The Potential Impact of January Transfers
While Manchester United’s relegation chances remain remote, the fact that we are even discussing the possibility midway through the season is a testament to the club’s ongoing struggles. There is, however, a glimmer of hope for the Red Devils in the form of the January transfer window. With the season still very much in the balance, a busy January could prove crucial in determining United’s fate.
Ruben Amorim has already admitted that the squad requires strengthening, and he will likely look to make key additions to address the team’s deficiencies. The club’s midfield has been particularly problematic, with the aging Eriksen and the inconsistent performance of other players like Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes leaving gaps that opponents have exploited. Bringing in a creative midfielder and a more dynamic defensive option could give the team the boost it needs.
Southhampton’s Visit to Old Trafford: A Crucial Match
One of the most pivotal fixtures of the early part of 2025 will be the visit of Southampton to Old Trafford on January 16. Southampton, currently near the relegation zone themselves, will be eager to capitalize on United’s disarray. A defeat to Southampton would deepen the crisis at Manchester United and leave them with even less margin for error in their quest for survival. On the other hand, a victory could provide the team with the confidence and momentum to mount a successful second half of the season.
The Damning Reality of United’s Decline
The fact that Manchester United are even involved in a relegation battle, particularly under a coach of Ruben Amorim’s quality, is a damning indictment of the club’s ongoing decline. From the glory years under Sir Alex Ferguson to the current chaos of the post-Ferguson era, the club has been unable to regain the consistency and success that once made them a dominant force in both English and European football.
The shift from Louis van Gaal to José Mourinho to Ole Gunnar Solskjær and now to Amorim has been marked by inconsistent performances, poor recruitment, and an overall lack of identity. The club’s famed academy, which once produced a conveyor belt of talent, has also failed to produce top-tier players in recent years, leaving United heavily reliant on expensive signings that have not always delivered the desired results.
The Road Ahead: Can Amorim Save United?
Ruben Amorim faces a huge challenge in reversing Manchester United’s fortunes. The task ahead of him is monumental, but it is not entirely impossible. With the right additions in January and an improvement in form, Manchester United could avoid a relegation scrap and finish in the middle of the table. However, their trajectory under Amorim thus far suggests that significant work lies ahead for the new manager.
Conclusion: Is Relegation Really a Threat?
While Manchester United’s chances of relegation remain slim, the fact that the club is even being discussed in such terms speaks volumes about their current crisis. The Red Devils must take decisive action in January to address their weaknesses and provide a platform for Amorim to build upon. Whether or not they can avoid the unthinkable relegation remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain: this season is shaping up to be one of the most difficult in the club’s storied history.
