Manchester United’s Path to Europa League Round of 16
Manchester United are in a strong position as they head into their final league phase matchday in the Europa League. A victory over FCSB would guarantee their place in the round of 16, but their fate isn’t entirely in their hands if they draw or lose.
While the weekends have often brought frustration and disappointment for United fans, midweek fixtures in Europe have provided manager Ruben Amorim with moments of calm. Under Amorim, the Red Devils have won all their Europa League encounters, including a dramatic 2-1 victory over Rangers last week, thanks to a late goal from Bruno Fernandes.
That win propelled United up the standings from ninth to fourth, significantly boosting their chances of a top-eight finish and automatic qualification for the knockout phase. According to Opta’s supercomputer, United have an 89.8% chance of making the round of 16, but they still need to get the job done against FCSB in Romania on Thursday.
Let’s examine how different results in Bucharest could impact their qualification chances.
If Man Utd Beat FCSB
United enter this fixture with momentum after Lisandro Martinez’s deflected goal secured a 1-0 Premier League victory over Fulham at the weekend. If they can continue their winning streak with a triumph in Bucharest, they will be assured of a spot in the Europa League round of 16.
A win would keep them at least in fourth place and potentially allow them to move higher in the standings. While Lazio lead the table, Eintracht Frankfurt and Athletic Club are only a point ahead of United. Since Frankfurt face Roma and Athletic host Viktoria Plzen, there’s a chance United could climb into the top two.
If Man Utd Draw with FCSB
A draw in Bucharest is a realistic outcome, given FCSB’s impressive home record in the league phase. A single point would leave United in a precarious position, but they would still have a strong chance of advancing directly to the round of 16.
FCSB, currently in eighth, would remain behind United in the standings. Only two teams outside the top eight—Galatasaray and Bodo/Glimt could match United’s 16 points. However, both teams face tough fixtures, with Galatasaray visiting Ajax and Bodo/Glimt traveling to Nice.
If United draw, their qualification could still be at risk if Lyon, Tottenham, Anderlecht, and Galatasaray all win. Additionally, Bodo/Glimt would need a two-goal victory to surpass United in the standings.
If Man Utd Lose to FCSB
Losing in Bucharest is a scenario United will want to avoid. However, even in defeat, they could still qualify for the round of 16 if certain results go their way.
To advance despite losing, United would need at least three of these teams to drop points: Lyon, Tottenham, Anderlecht, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Viktoria Plzen, and Olympiacos. If both Plzen and Olympiacos win, they would be level on points with United, but their inferior goal difference could work in United’s favor.
If United slip out of the top eight, they will have to enter the knockout round play-off. This two-legged fixture would see seeded teams (those finishing between ninth and 16th) face unseeded teams (those finishing between 17th and 24th). The winners of these ties will then join the top eight teams from the league phase in the Europa League round of 16.
Manchester United have control over their Europa League destiny. A win against FCSB guarantees direct qualification to the round of 16, while a draw or loss would leave their fate dependent on other results. The ideal scenario is a victory in Bucharest, but even in defeat, United have a fighting chance to progress. Regardless of Thursday’s outcome, their European journey will continue, but a straightforward route to the next round would certainly be preferred.
